Thursday, February 01, 2007

Republican Consultants Need a Wake-up Call

I was lurking OC Blog (the Orange County hangout for Republican insiders and consultants) yesterday and found this doozie by GOP consultant Jubal/Matt Cunningham. Basically, it's a rebuke of Nicole Rivera's recent post on the California Progress Report about the resurgence of Orange County Democrats. Now Jubal would like to think that it's Nicole who needs a "tutoring in reality", but I must beg to differ. If anything, Jubal and his GOP consultant friends need to wake up and smell the coffee:
Their party is falling apart in Central Orange County while we're getting our act together!

But I digress.

Jubal's post is a pretty standard display of OC GOP hubris, but he certainly drops some nasty rants in there:

Let me get this straight. The OC GOP virtually wipes out the Democrats voter registration edge in the 34th Senate District in less than a year and then comes within an eyelash of ending 8 years of Democratic control with by nominating a white lady from Brea who out-worked the Dems. And this is a sign of a Democratic tide?

No, Jubal, let me get this straight! Yes, we shirked our responsibility by ignoring the threat you guys were posing in the 34th Senate District until last year. However we get back in the game by getting involved in the community again, and by genuinely connecting with voters. Oh yeah, and we turned that registration "wipe out" into a 2.5% registration edge!

Oh, and shouldn't we remember that despite going against the GOP machine's "bounty hunting" in Central Orange County, endless Republican "dirty tricks", and numerous problems on Election Day, LOU STILL WON!

Now I don't know about Jubal, but I wouldn't call that "Republican strength"...
And speaking of Republican strength:

Let's see: the 68th AD is 45% GOP to 31% Dem. The 70th AD is 48% GOP to 28% Dem, and the 35th SD is 48% GOP to 28.5% Democrat. In other words, the GOP registration advantage in those districts is 14 points.

Yes, and the Democratic advantage in the 47th Congressional District is only about 5.5%, yet Loretta Sanchez won reelection with over 60% of the vote! However with a much greater registration edge in their respective Assembly Districts, Assemblymembers Van Tran (68th) and Chuck Devore (70th) barely even got 60% of the vote! And as for the 35th Senate District, it isn't as conservative as Jubal and other GOPers would really like it to be.

So basically, I don't think Jubal should have to worry about us needing "tutoring in reality". If anything, he should worry about his own party needing a wake-up call!

(Cross-posted at the California Progress Report, and at Calitics)

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